Jack Gerard
Jane Van Ryan
Individuals who oppose U.S. oil and natural gas development often cite the following sentence: "The United States represents 5 percent of the world's population but uses 25 percent of the world's energy."
Ouch. That sentence makes all of us appear to be wasteful, slothful, and uncaring about the environment. But like a lot of other statements created to appeal to our sensitivities, it exaggerates the truth and leaves out some very important facts.
According to the 2009 U.S. Statistical Abstract, the United States is home to about 4.5 percent of the world's people. And an examination of other pertinent statistics shows it makes no sense to suggest that U.S. energy consumption can be attributed to each American individually. The United States is a global economic powerhouse using energy to produce goods and services that help to improve lives all over the world. In 2008, the United States used 20.4 percent of the world's energy (BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2009) to produce 20.6 percent (The World Factbook, CIA, 2008) of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Other statistics show that rather than feeling guilty about U.S. energy consumption, we should celebrate the impact of America's free market system on energy efficiency and ingenuity. Consider this statement: "In competitive markets, companies and entrepreneurs are constantly seeking to reduce production costs in order to achieve the same level of output with less energy and other inputs. This has reduced energy use and greenhouse gas per unit of output in the United States and other market-oriented countries. ("10 Cool Global Warming Policies," National Center for Policy Analysis, June 2009, with a citation to "Doing More with Less," Earth Report 2000.) As an example, World Bank statistics show the United States produces about $4.60 of GDP per kilogram of oil or equivalent energy. Russia produces only $2.00 of GDP for the same amount of energy.
Furthermore, while the U.S. "economy has grown more than 2,000 percent since 1910, fossil fuel use has increased only 600 percent, and carbon emissions per capita did not even double."("10 Cool Global Warming Policies," National Center for Policy Analysis, June 2009, with a citation to "Sustainability and the U.S. Energy System," Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, March 27, 2009.)
Clearly, America's free market system is working to produce goods and services in the most efficient way possible and is generating value for each ounce of energy that's expended. Remember this the next time someone tries to put you on a guilt trip...
The argument that “the US has 5% of the world’s population but uses 25% of the energy” is used by China and India and is used frequently in writings on the Kyoto Protocol. I was amazed recently to hear T. Boone Pickens quote it. It’s used to make the argument that the US uses disproportionate energy and to justify why some other country should not have to control emissions.
My study shows that GDP of an economic unit and its efficiency of energy use is far more important than per-capita energy use. Further, as demonstrated by the current world economic situation, economies are tightly linked and GDP is what makes the world go around. I agree with your points.
Let me add some information I’ve data-mined out of the same BP report you cite. These are expressed in MTOE to make them comparable; that data is available in the report.
• The US and EU have similar-size GDP, population and energy use.
• China consumes about the same amount of energy as the US, but produces half the GDP.
• China consumes three times the coal as the US.
• China’s GDP is expected to grow at 8% for the forseeable future. The US grows 3% - 5%, less at the moment
I can't get my charts to show up in this reply, but I've charted a visual comparison, 2008 at www.softtoyssoftware.com/dbnet/EnergyEconomics/images
/energySourceDistrib_14671_image017.png
And a chart showing world consumption, 2008:
www.softtoyssoftware.com/dbnet/EnergyEconomics/images
/energySourceDistrib_14671_image009.png
In the World chart, the Europe and Eurasia bar includes the EU plus Russia. China contributes about 70% of the Asia Pacific bar. India is a fast-growing economy, but total usage 2008 is 433 MTOE so is not currently comparable to the US, EU, and China. It’s all the same underlying data.
I conclude the following:
• Do the math on energy consumption of US, China, and EU going out 10-20 years, based on GDP growth of each. Supply growth is the key issue to be addressed now.
• My opinion, this is why we should be developing additional sources including solar and wind, but we should not be neglecting development of clean coal technologies because the large reserves in North America, Europe and China are going to become increasingly important.
• Coal is going to continue to be a large fraction of energy use and therefore emissions, driven by China regardless of how the US manages its energy sources.
• To handle world CO2 emission, use of clean coal technology in China is going to be essential. US efforts on emission seem low-leverage by comparison.
I didn't mean to be coal-centric, but the statistics kind of leap off the page.
Use of the per-capita energy use statistic leads away from these conclusions, that I think are far more important to the shape of the world going forward. Per-capita use is a self-serving argument. An area with large population games numbers to disguise the real effects of consumption and emission.
I have more data-mining on my website at www.softtoyssoftware.com/dbnet/EnergyEconomics including links to sources for GDP, population etc.
My question back to you is, who would listen to these arguments? While I don't disagree with the "green" movement, it seems it's being addressed to the exclusion of supply, at least in legislation and popular opinion, which I think is very dangerous.